Nice overview, I've also been adding. I'm not sure how high Mopane will be valued though. But it's very good to see interest from multiple parties.
I think one factor that's overlooked is the taxation when Sintana monetizes PEL-83. I'm not an expert but it could be as high as 32%. I think their analysts target of $1.19 is fair, maybe even slightly optimistic.
The current price implies around 25% recover rate for $2/boe which is low-ish but not completely unreasonable. To get above NPV of C$1.00 we should get closer to 30% recovery rate and $3/boe. Bull case maybe around 35% recovery, $4/boe which would be C$1.70 per share. I don't think we can expect much more than that assuming taxes of 32% .
Bloomberg's 20B has to be the undiscounted value which is something very different.
Nice overview, I've also been adding. I'm not sure how high Mopane will be valued though. But it's very good to see interest from multiple parties.
I think one factor that's overlooked is the taxation when Sintana monetizes PEL-83. I'm not an expert but it could be as high as 32%. I think their analysts target of $1.19 is fair, maybe even slightly optimistic.
The current price implies around 25% recover rate for $2/boe which is low-ish but not completely unreasonable. To get above NPV of C$1.00 we should get closer to 30% recovery rate and $3/boe. Bull case maybe around 35% recovery, $4/boe which would be C$1.70 per share. I don't think we can expect much more than that assuming taxes of 32% .
Bloomberg's 20B has to be the undiscounted value which is something very different.
Hoping for a farm-out announcement soon!
Good points. The current valuation also implies no other assets allthough pre-production assets tend to trade at discount to NPV
Yeah the other assets have potential upside but I'm not betting on the market assigning much value to them until exploration successes.